tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC December 31, 2018 5:00am-6:00am EST
the president's big progress trump dominating headlines this weekend after what he calls a very good call with china's president ship jinping about trade. stocks are cheering. a sea of green around the rest of the globe as well and the disney dispute is over the media giant reaching an agreement with verizon, avoiding a massive fios blackout. it is monday, december 31st, new year's eve and worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪
good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. happy new year's eve brian sullivan is off today. futures are showing green right now. dow jones slated to open by 203 points at this stage if the gains hold to the opening bell s&p 500 up 21 points and the nasdaq up by 52. on the treasury side of things, we are seeing a bit of movement as well. 10-year u. s. treasury notes trading at 2.73% the two-year note, 2.52% topping your headlines today, you've got trade president trump saying he had a very good call with president xi jinping and said progress is being made "the wall street journal" said the president may be overstating on how close the two sides are to a possible agreement. let's see how stocks are reacting to that bit of news in asia, markets in japan, south
korea, and mainland china are closed for public holidays but you can see the hang seng up one and a third percent. the taiwan up 1% as well. in germany and italy, up about 1% as well foot say up 11%. euros very us the u.s. dollar. $1.14. gold up 1284.40. bitcoin down 1%. here's a check on where the major u.s. indexes stand
dow is down 7% it is on pace to break a two-year winning streak with its worst yearly performance since 2008 during the financial crisis s&p lower by 7%. and the nasdaq fell 5% on the year on pace to break a six-year winning streak the markets in 2018 perhaps ones to forget. let's bring in bill stone, from avalon advisers. bill, as we talk about 2018, it seemed like a tale of two markets. what stood out to you between the first half and second half of 2018? >> well, certainly at least in the second half, these -- i guess i would say significant worries about global growth, about, you know, the trade issue with china just overwhelmed really what i think is an underlying good news which, skipping to it, is a good reason to be a bit oeuptimisticn 2019 i shouldn't worry about the fed is and worries about a fed
policy era >> bill, as we talk about the first half of the year, incident was a fear of rising interest rates that really took the markets down in the second half of the year, we have seen those turn the other direction. 2.73%. we just look at the 10-year u.s. treasury note. which is it for 2019 a fear of higher rates or what lower rates might be signaling about the future of the u.s. economy? >> you know, it will be a bit more of struggling with what lower rates might signal for the economy. i think that's where we're at right now. the rates have come down quite a bit. i do think you will continue to have some sort of struggles. hopefully we will see a little more from chairman powell at the end of this week in terms of more worries about a fed policy error but if the fed got the message to pause for a while, maybe we will get respite to the start of 2019 bill, do you expect that the markets will react in the same
way to the fed as they have in the latter part of 2018 and is the fed going to react quite similarly to how they have done things the last six months or have they quote, unquote learned a lesson >> well, i hope they have learned some lesson. i think it's been as much as anything a communicationings problem. i don't know that we are learning any new lessons i think they have been watching the yield curve. they are aware of things, the front end inverting. that does send a signal. you saw that the fed picked up on the markets the market might not a lot of things said in the last news conference they quickly went out and tried to fix it up a little bit. they did a pretty good job with that that was help will we will see what he says at the end of this week i think they have gotten the message to back off a little bit in terms of trying to say we will have a bit of a pause here. >> bill, 2018 is a year bulls
and stock market investors want to forget. what's the outlook for 2019? are things going to be possible? we have a lot of tailwinds, but that doesn't mean the market will respond positive live to those? >> two good things of i have kind of said we are slowing but growing. we are seeing the u.s. economy is probably slowing down from, you know, certainly something like 3.2% to 2.5%. like you said, that is still a positive tail wind the other great thing to look at, as you know, last week we got within a whisker of being down 20% we looked at times when we went down 20% in the post world war ii era the numbers look great even when we fell into recession one year later you had is significantly positive returns incident was better if we didn't fall into recession. i think it is setting us up for the odds being well in our favor to have a good year next year.
>> a good year no recession in your mind. what are the opportunities given what the market has given us over the course of the last three months >> because the market is so worried about global growth, i think you have to go to a more cyclical side of the world we like consumer discretionary we like, even though theuf to, you know, catch my breath before i say it, energy a bit that's been a tough spot, to say the least. and then i think last piece, technology it has been beaten up quite a bit. again, it has a cyclical component to it. those are opportunity spots. >> you mentioned the yield curve before how important are the financials, the banks to the upside thesis for the markets in 2019 >> well, i mean, at least having some stabilization in the banks would be good. i'm certainly not worried about the capital side of things you know, they certainly suffered with the worries that we wouldn't see as many were
rate heights financials are a large component of the s&p so it matters. they have gotten wiped out hard. it is not time to go shopping too much there i don't know that you will necessarily -- maybe that sets us up for a better year next year as well >> bill stone, thank you so much for those thoughts >> thank you. >> happy new year. >> you too. >> hopefully 2019 thoughts come across in the markets. well, let's get a check on the other top big money stories. kate rogers with those kate. >> don, good morning we are talking growers and the disney child amazon plans to build and expand whole food stores across the u.s. that would put more customers within the two-hour delivery service prime now. employees have looked at idaho, utah, and wyoming for potential retail spaces. verizon and disney have struck a deal to get from being blacked out on fios.
there are 4 million customers in nine states and washington, d.c. and shares of 10 cent rose more than 1% in hong kong today on saturday, china started to approve new video game titles after amos-long freeze the list did not include tencent. kate rogers, thank you for that kwru date on the stocks to watch. we are just getting is started here on the show on deck, rising rates and real estate your 2019 housing playbook is coming up next plus, big market wild card it could impact stocks in a big way. we will tell you what that is after world wide exchange returns. and serve with confidence that it's safe. this is a diamond you can follow from mine to finger,
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to mild yum medium turn to the down side. sticking with the treasury side of things, rising rates and real estate risks have dominated headlines so far this year as we wrap up 2018, here's a look at what to watch for in the housing market coming up in 2019 2018 was a roller coaster for residential real estate, home prices overheated, mortgage rates rose a lot and fell a little and home sales stalled 2019 will see some big changes first, prices will pull back affordability is a bad word in the housing market today because low supply and high demand push prices over the top. now supply is rising slowly. and the big prices will shrink
there are high costs for land and labor. second, mortgage rates will rise they went up, they flat lined, they fell back last month. but the trend in 2019 should be higher with rates passing back over 5% on the 30-year fixed and staying there. and finally, rents will rise all this weakness in home sales means more potential buyers will stay put in their rentals. occupancies are already high, which means rents will remain pricey, especially in the sought-after urban markets all right. there's your play book for real estate mark fleming of first american mark, you see the story about what's going to happen with real estate in 2019 one of the lead stories on cnbc.com is about the new york city real estate market having a bit of a real pullback in terms of the overall markets how do you see certain markets in the u.s. fairing versus others, or is this a germ feeling of a pull back in
housing in 2019? >> it is a general pullback. new york is a high-priced market so there will be additional issues in the changes of the tax code having a difference on the high priced homes there. diana is right, mortgage rates will likely rise in 2019 as they did in 2018. maybe not as much as we thought. the news from chairman powell, there will be fewer rate increases. it is effectively good for the housing market but the challenge is the reason why rates are going up is because the economy is strong. that counteracts the mortgage rate it is the tug of war of why rates are rising means housing markets can withstand a more normalized rate. >> you bring up an interesting point about the tug of war if we look at the housing stocks and all the building products
companies out there, they didn't tell a very good story in 2018 does this mean that the real estate market is not the best indicator for the u.s. economy >> no, i don't think so. it certainly interacts or reacts to the u.s. economy. the good thing about housing is everybody needs it you can't outsource it so what we are struggling really with is the lack of supply the home builders, you know, can, with challenges, help to solve. the reason there apart that many home sales is existing homeowners are sitting on mortgage rates at 3.5% or 4% and don't want to move so you don't get that supply of homes for sale, even though there is a great story of a strange tailwind demand among millennial first time home buyers who would love to buy something if only it were for sale >> mark, what would be the primary drivers of that housing trade, of that housing market in 2019 is it going to be interest rates? is it going to be the
supply/demand imbalance? what is going to be the primary factor that will be the biggest influence over housing next year >> supply and demand is the one i focus on next year rates will rise to mid-fives that is not a hate rate drive from a historical perspective. it is the availability and supply existing homeowners are today on sitting in their homes on average from 10 years. that is prior to the boom or even three or four years ago the longer people want to stay in their homes, they are the primary provider of most of the homes for sale in the united states the more the key challenge gets to how do we build new and affordable homes to solve the supply problem >> mark, we know with certain markets, southern california are feeling a bit more of the pullback what is it about -- we know the markets are hot right now, right? but what is it about the rest of the united states housing market that perhaps should be a little bit more tempered with regard to
expectations both to the up side and down side. these are not the price declines in real estate in certain other parts of the country than we are on the coastal northeast or western coast of the united states, right? >> right the high-priced markets are high priced because, one, they're sought after so there is demand. and they are highly restricted in terms of the availability of housing. that is not necessarily the case in many markets in the united states houston is a perfect example fourth largest city in the united states. tons of home building, lots of expansion. texas in germ. texas in general. it is not just where people want to live but the availability of the housing stock there and the ability to build new stock in the markets. >> before we get you go, mark, if i am a home buyer, what's the best time next year to target that given interest rates, affordability and housing demand >> i would say probably early spring there is not a lot of inventory
in the winter months particularly in cold parts of the united states. we know the rates will be rising further into the year. target march as a good time to get out and start looking to buy. >> mark khreplifleming, thank yu we appreciate that for 2019. >> thank you coming up next, pet policy changes. california is making a big change to its local pet stores we'll explain coming up next but first the countdown is on just a few more hours left in 2018 and preps for the biggest new tys dew rk party in neyo ci iunrway for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials
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(drumsticks clatter) an iconic site in new york city this time of year "30 rock" feller center. and the christmas tree up there, it will come down soon but still a holiday cheer scene in the middle of midtown manhattan. so far futures right now point to go what should be a solid open the dow jones up by 203 points the s&p up by 20 and the nasdaq up by just about 50 points as well. the oil trade is catching a bit of a rebound today right now up 1.5%. $46.08 the last trade. eyes brent crude, nearly a 2% gain for those oil prices.
the shutdown hitting its 10th day with no end in sight kelly an koanne conway says the waiting for a plan that includes the border wall and other security measures. growing outrage across the state of california against pg&e right now pacific gas and electric has to prove it did not cause any of the recent deadly wildfires for the is the state's attorney general said the company could face criminal charges up to murder a u.s. district court judge ordered the investigation last month. pg&e acknowledged in documents obtained by cnbc that its equipment may have sparked the campfire in northern california. that campfire killed at least 88 people and destroyed nearly 14,000 homes tragedy at a north carolina
animal conservation center officials say alexandra black was killed after a lion escaped from a locked space and attacked her. the 22-year-old had been interning at the conservation center in burlington she was cleaning a separate enclosure when the attack happened the lion was shot and killed investigators investigators are looking into how it escaped john kelly speaks out as he leasts the white house this week the long promised southern border wall is not what he portrayed, saying the white house gave up on building a concrete border barrier early on in the administration. he also called incident a bone crushing hard job. coming up next on the show, the wild card factor one market strategyist says one issue could weigh big on stocks
next year. plus, retail detail. christmas may be over, buff the is the shopping stocks are still front and center ♪ a moment of joy. a source of inspiration. an act of kindness. an old friend. a new beginning. some welcome relief... or a cause for celebration. ♪ what's inside? ♪ [laughter] possibilities. what we deliver by delivering.
for the nation's largest new year's eve celebration up to a million people are expected to ring in 2019 in new york times square. let's go to chris pollone live in the heart of the action it's quiet now, chris, but it will get a lot busier. >> reporter: yeah, tom, good morning. what a difference a year makes a year ago at this time i was talking about one of the coldest new year's eve ball drops in history. it ended up being nine degrees when the clock struck midnight last year. this year it could be into the 40s. people who come to times square a little later today might see something we haven't seen in two decades here rain the the last time it rained when the clock struck midnight to ring in the new year was 24 years ago. the problem is for all of these people who fill these pens behind me, 700,000, up to a million of them, they can't
bring umbrella a little added degree of difficulty for them. as you might imagine, security is extremely tight here. nypd says this is the safest place to be in america tonight it is quite a production from 42nd street close to the 50s essentially shut down. to get in here it's a difficult process. you have to go through metal detection, screening screened by a metal detector again. there are hundreds of blockers vehicles, what they call things like sanitation trucks, plows parked all around the area on cross streets so no vehicle traffic can get in here. for the first time ever, the nypd will be using drones to keep an eye on the sky to watch over the crowd to make sure that everything is safe then you have the usual contingent of hundreds and hundreds of officers, plain
clothed, uniformed and tactical units watching over. several hours left in 2018 now chris, let's get an idea 24 years since we last had rain on a new year's ball drop. what should potential visitors do to prepare for this kind of environment? no umbrellas, like you said. is there a sense that people will not want to go to the pens? they can, what should they be wearing for the conditions for the weather? >> yeah. absolutely ponchos at the least if you have good rain gear, absolutely wear that it is going to be a slog the temperatures will be okay. we won't have to go with the long johns or anything like that stay safe in times square. kate rogers is back with the
latest here's what's leading cnbc.com right now president trump says he spoke with chinese leader xi jinping tweeting they had made big progress on trade and a possible deal is moving along well. thes is pushing china to provide details of proposals it has made since trump and xi met in argentina earlier this month sears gets an 11th hour repri e reprieve submitting a 4 polyp $4 billion bid to buy the company out of bankruptcy it would secure the jobs of up to 50,000 workers. advisers have until friday to determine whether a bid is viable and new york city's real estate market is under major pressure home prices have dropped between 10% and 20% since peak anything 2015
sellers are offering steeper discounts on their homes, adding that the market may not bottom out for months back over to you. >> kate rogers, thank you for the headlines. the futures right now pointing to a sharply higher open for the dow. slightly below where we were just a half an hour ago. green across the screen 20 points nasdaq up 50 mainland chinese markets are closed as they are in soerbg ut korea and japan. india just about flat. germany and italy closed for this new year's eve. however, trading is still going on in the ibex. abbreviated trading for many other markets that are still open on this new year's eve in
europe as the calendar gets ready to flip over to 2019, there are plenty of risks and potential rewards for the markets and investors in 2019. let's bring in brian kelly, ceo of brian kelly capital, a "fast money" trader, cnb contributor thank you for the early wakeup call let's talk 2019. are there opportunities for people to be bullish next year given the current market environment? >> i think there are happy new year to you. good to see you. thanks for having me i think they are come spaog 201. i'm not wildly bullish for 2019. but where the market is today, we had this 20% peak look what's going on progress on the tariff deals with china who knows what kind of progress it is and where we ultimately end up but it is better than it was last year. powell is probably in his job for the next three months to six months and the fed is likely going to be not as tight as they have
been and we have priced in a lot of the slowdown in global growth. now i would look to see stimulus particularly from china. all of those things where the market is today, it is probably not a bad place to add equities. brian, you are a "fast money" trader. is it generally positive or are we tilting more negative given what we have seen the last couple of months >> no. that's what i love about it, right? everybody is so negative everybody is saying the world is coming to an end and all of that maybe the world does come to an end. but i don't think it will be today or in the next three months or so as a trader, where they are looking three weeks to three months, i look at all these things and all of this negativity and you want to be on the other side of the boat there everybody is on one side bk run to the other. >> peter brook far is out on cnbc.com saying we don't see the
types of bull market rips we saw the day after christmas. these happen maybe in bear markets. are we in a bear market or just treading water until 2019? >> peter is right. you get some of the largest point moves to the up side in bear markets i don't have the exact stats but it is somewhere between 6 to 8 of the 10 largest moves to the up side have been during bear markets. i remarked last week that the trading of the last week or so reminded me very much of the trading in 2008. the the volatile where the dow is 650, and up 1,000 the next day, those moves were very common in 2008, 2009 that type of volatility. i'm a volatility junky, so i love that stuff. >> what's on your shopping miss? if things go haywire like they have the last couple of months,
what goes on your shopping list? what are you looking to buy? what types of names and sectors? >> to me it will all stem off the collar if we get progress on tariffs, i want to be in the multinationals the names that have been beaten up if you want to go big or macro picture, a weaker dollar a baby beamer, maybe you want to buy gold bitcoin based on the weaker play other than that, you have to be a bit tactical if we get a bear market ripple or a bull market again, all boats are going to rise with this tide. >> brian, you have been on our network a lot over the course of the last year. those cryptocurrency markets have tumbled in a very large way. >> yeah. >> what is it about these markets that still has you positive
this price action can only be viewed as negative only a year ago we were 17,000 in terms of bitcoin prices we are closer to 3,600, 3,700. >> a year ago i would walk into the newsroom and everybody loved me now i have to hide around the corner it is not necessarily bitcoin. but we are looking at software that disintermediates services i say, okay, where is the biggest growth area and what areas are going to be disrupted? that's what cryptocurrency and bitcoin do you are able to move money around the world with little to no fees without a middle man look at what has happened to the newspapers from blogs. look at what has happened to television or even movies because of stuff like netflix. the same type of thing is happening with cryptocurrencies
in the financial services area if i look at the next five to 10 years, where is the growth cryptocurrency and bitcoin. >> no doubt it has been lower in a very, very big way >> yeah. >> what exactly would you be watching for in terms of down side it does exist for cryptocurrencies >> you couldn't have said it better, dom, right i have been talking since 2013 when i wrote my book i have seen this boom/bust cycle three times. a couple of things i would say number one, size it appropriately. 1% to 5% of your portfolio should go into this asset class. it is the riskiest thing you can do with your money that being said, what do we look like in 2019 it wouldn't surprise me if we tkrpd down to 2,000 or so. but we are starting to see sellers get exhausted. what i don't see yet is who the
next buyer is. it will be institutions that i talked to ready to write a check. so that's kind of the missing piece. as soon as i see that, then i will get bullish again on bit koeup. >> all right brian kelly, thank you for the thoughts we appreciate that on this early wakeup call new year's eve coming up on the show, behind the retail wreck. a tough year for shopping stocks the best names for your money as we head into the next year as we head to break, take a look at the world's worst performing major stock market this year it is china's "csi" 300 index. that blue chip index closing down more than 25% for 2018. shedding some, get this, $2.3 trillion, thwi a t, in market capitalization
that is the middle of the united states. that's chicago a live shot 4:42 a.m. central time there big celebrations going up for new year's eve there you can only imagine up to speed on the market action the dow would open by 200 points we have seen this level of stability for the course of the last 40 minutes or so. the dow opening up by just about this level s&p up 19. nasdaq up 50 points. we will see if they hold to the opening bell
let's find out what else you will be talking about today. time for the top trending stories. kate rogers is back with those kate. a holdover weekend for the box office warner brothers "aquaman" took home $51.5 billion in its second weekend in north america that's a decline of 25%. a new law goes into effect in california tomorrow that will impact how people get their pets the law requires that all cats, dogs, and rabbits sold by pet stores must come from shelters and rescues. they will be required to keep sufficient records to prove their animals are not from puppy mills and to grant animal control to periodic records to those animals. a bald eagle was supposed to circle the stadium and return back to its handler. but the animal got confused,
seemingly lost he took to the stands, landing on two different fans. this is my worst nightmare neither of the fans or the eagle were hurt during that mixup. >> it is pretty good >> i don't like animals that don't come when you call them. this is not for me >> my wife has a huge aversion to birds parrots, in any way, shape or form i lovebirds of prey. there's a part of me that wants to try falconry. >> some of them do come when you call it's not like a dog where you're like come on, come over here >> my dogs don't listen when they're supposed to. thank you very much for that look thanks again for that. in the sports world, sunday night football, the colts taking on the titans in tennessee, and the winner goes to the playoffs.
the loser will stay home the colts got on the board first and never looked back. indianapolis got the win by a final score of 33-17 over the tennessee titans the s&p retail etf, xrt, down 10% in 2018 here's a look at what to expect for that sector as we head into the new year 2018 was a volatile year for stocks the trend could continue in 2019 tariff uncertainty u.s. and china have until march 1st to come to a resolution on trade. tariffs could go up to 25% on a long list of products leading to higher prices for shoppers retailers that sell more domestically sourced products like the large amounts of food
sold at walmart and sam's club will have more pressure. online profitable impatience retailers and brands have been spending billions investing in their e-commerce operations. all to play catchup with amazon. while investors have given some time to invest and improve, patience is running thin shareholders want to see profitability improve. if it doesn't, retail stocks will take the hit in 2019. third, store closures is slow in 2017 and 2018, retail store closures and bankruptcies hit levels not seen since the financial crisis but that should ease in 2019 while the big swath of closures should be over, retailers will still be fighting hard for sales growth as competition is higher than ever and rising interest rates make payments more expensive. there's your play book courtney regan
courtney, lower gasoline prices. rising interest rates. tariffs. it is all playing out. consumer confidence still remains at relatively high levels so will the consumer bail all of us out of the tkold rumps we have seen >> what we have been seeing in the markets and what we seemingly saw during the holiday season at the cash register with shoppers, two very different things the presents were under the tree on christmas morning mastercard gave us the numbers 5% sales growth. we know that so far. we don't have the full holiday season numbers from the retailers. but we will be getting them soon sit really strong. the consumer confidence still quite strong we talked to people when we were out shopping and out in stores we said, hey, have you seen what's going on in the stock market not one person said yes.
>> between november 1st and december 24th, new year's or christmas eve, spending by americans on holiday shopping was over $850 billion that's a really big shopping season that must mean there are positive signs for the economy and the consumer >> i think that's very true. even the retail ceos, they are running retail businesses. but they are paying attention to what's going on in the market. we know how economic cycles work and you can't stay in this upswing forever. are we talking ourselves into something that isn't necessarily happening, at least not yet on main street with the consumer. it is one of these things where we won't know until it happens retail ceo are not seeing signs, at least that they have shared with me, where the consumer started to pull back >> you speak to so many insiders retail ceos, buyers, merchants
of all varieties what do you think is the general trend or theme we will see play out in 2019? for instance, will it be the luxury side of things or focused on walmart and dollar stores more apparel and online stuff as opposed to online shopping elsewhere that is not amazon.com what are you seeing on that front? >> so i think the high-end consumer, luxury consumer will be strong. if we start to see weakness, it will start there first as it is related to the market. the the high-end shopper will pull back sooner than the lower end shopper if the stock market is leading us. if it's the economy leading us and unemployment is high, the low-end shopper will pull back so i think you need to watch both of those very closely, the high end and the low end i think with the tariff uncertainty, retailers, brands,
everyone is going to be looking for areas where they can save money. which means they are possibly going to be putting more pressure on suppliers of goods the walmarts will continually put pressure on the proctor & gambles to ask them to help cut costs so they can ultimately lower prices and offset tariffs that come in at whatever level >> they will be key for sure courtney regan, all things regan. still ahead on the show, global markets and currencies have taken center stage. what to expect coming into 2019. speaking of currency, a startling stat to wrap up your year the u.s. dollar is up more than 4.5% year to date. it is on date for its fifth positive year out of the last six. (urgent drumming) ♪
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that is a live shot of our nation's capital day 10 of the government shutdown futures right enough shrugging some of the shutdown concerns. the dow opens by 200 points if the gains hold into the opening bell nasdaq up by 47. so joining me now is boris, managing director on the bk asset management thank you so much for being here with us. let's talk about all the things that have happened in 2018 it's been eventful traders have finally gotten the volatility they have been lacking the last two careers what exactly about the last couple of months has you either worried or optimistic about 2019 >> i think i am more more in the worry camp, and i'll tell you why. i think from everything i'm seeing the big scare is it is monetary policy that will matter much more than economy if you think about this on a
long-term basis, it is really driven markets forward the fact that the fed is starting to tighten, and we had a temper tantrum at the end of the year, it is a preview is of things to come i think the fed may be making policy mays takes. if you think about this, the gains have not come from income or real economic growth. if you're stifling assets, which means you will kill housing, kill equities and killing bonds at this point, there will be no place for investors to hide. unless. fed takes the food off the pedal. that is going to be the story to help stocks. >> we just pointed out that the u.s. dollar is up 5%. >> right. >> in the past we have spoken about large multinational
corporations with revenue exposure outside the country. >> very good point >> that is going to be a big deal does that strengthening u.s. dollar perhaps provide a little bit of cover for the fed in the tightening process in other words,, will a strength epping dollar wrap things up in and of itself without having to raise interest rates as quickly. >> that would be a good point to make they just continue going in a 25 basis point run because they are just looking for inflation, micro points if they look at the big mac row pick, they should ease aoe off very much to that point, multinational corporations will have a harder time making profits going forward if the dollar strengthens further. >> what is a trader going to watch in 2019? what is the tea leaf >> interesting three primary risks, we just finished up our year end he thesis number one, u.s./china, can we
make nip kind of trade truce number two, brexit europe. very key that is coming up super soon and of course number three, the most important, will the fed ease if the fed stops and halts six months forward, it will provide enough for the market to recover at this point. nothing happens. if we go the other way, we could have a harsher selloff the biggest, best is the swiss franc. it could go 90 cents against the dollar. >> thank you very much for joining us this morning. >> happy new year to everybody >> that does it for "worldwide exchange". "squawk box" will pick up the coverage here. but happy new year
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>> i think it will be tough for the transports in 2019 but there are good values. i do see some opportunities. >> what if there were no rate hikes in '19 at all? would it be a good year for stocks i would bet yes unless you go into a full-blown trade war with china and things spin out of control at that point. >> good morning. a green end to a red year. the open on hopes for u.s./china trade talks. and there's a last minute deal verizon and disney striking an agreement to keep espn, abc, and other disney networks from being blacked out on fios. under pressure a new report says the down turn in new york city real estate is getting worse. more pain could be around the
corner "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ welcome to new york stpoet. >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box" good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live in times square, which is empty right now a few hours to go before they drop the ball. right now we are here and we are ready to go. i'm becky quick. andrew is off today. joe tara nova joins us he is a cnbc contributor too pretty strong green arrows dow futures up by 200 points of course that's not a lot of comfort given where we have come it adds to the gains when the dow was up by 2.7% nasdaq up by 4%. it is indicated to open up another 45 points. s&p indicated by 20 points but you are talking ab